The 2022 semifinalists proved African football has arrived at the top table. With a settled generation of Europe-based players (Hakimi, Ounahi, En-Nesyri) maturing further by 2026, Morocco have the defensive discipline and set-piece threat to go deep again. Home continent advantage disappears — but tournament experience gained in Qatar is invaluable. Odds: 25/1.
Colombia boast arguably South America's most exciting attacking unit: Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez (if fit), and Jhon Duran. Their 2024 Copa America run showed genuine tournament quality. Japan, meanwhile, have quietly built a squad with 20+ players in Europe's top leagues. Their collective pressing and tactical flexibility make them the most dangerous Asian side since South Korea 2002. Odds: Colombia 28/1, Japan 35/1.
Both are perpetual nearly-men who could break through. Netherlands with Van Dijk, Gakpo and a new generation midfielder can be physically dominant. Portugal post-Ronaldo (or with late-career Ronaldo) carry Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes as creative leaders — both will be in their prime in 2026. Portugal 18/1, Netherlands 22/1.
Morocco defeating Portugal 1-0 in the quarterfinals was the standout shock. Japan also beat Germany and Spain in the group stage. These results signal a narrowing gap between elite and emerging nations.
It remains difficult but Morocco are realistically capable of reaching the final if the draw is kind. An African winner would be historic — no African team has ever reached the World Cup final.