The Modric Legacy and What Comes Next
Luka Modric — the 2018 Ballon d'Or winner who dragged Croatia to the World Cup final — will be 40 in 2026. Whether he plays any role is uncertain. What is certain: the nation's identity must evolve beyond its greatest-ever player. The post-Modric transition is Croatia's defining challenge heading into North America.
2022: A Final Farewell
Croatia reached the 2022 semi-finals (losing to Argentina) and finished third. Modric, at 36, was still the heartbeat. Gvardiol's stunning tournament and Livakovic's penalty heroics showed the transition was already underway.
The New Generation
Josko Gvardiol (Man City) is now a world-class defender at 22. Mateo Kovacic (Man City) provides the midfield metronome role. Martin Baturina (Dinamo Zagreb) is the creative spark. The bones of a competitive team remain.
Can Croatia Repeat the 2018 Magic?
Croatia's 2018 run relied on collective spirit, Modric's genius and Subasic's penalty saves. The 2026 version needs different heroes. Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim) remains the penalty-box presence. Ivan Perisic — now 37 — could still play an impact role. The system will likely shift from Modric's midfield control to a more direct, Gvardiol-centric defensive solidity.
Penalty Shootout Masters
Croatia's record in knockout-round penalties is remarkable: won 3 of 4 at the 2018 World Cup. Livakovic saved 3 penalties against Japan in 2022. This mental edge is a genuine tournament weapon.
The Small-Nation Advantage
Croatia (population 4 million) consistently punches far above its weight. The national pride and collective mentality that comes from representing a small nation creates extraordinary tournament resilience.
Croatia's 2026 Odds and Realistic Expectations
Croatia are priced 40/1 to 66/1 — genuine outsiders who have defied those odds twice before. A quarter-final run should be the realistic floor. A semi-final would require two big-nation scalps.
Key to Success
A favourable group draw plus Livakovic at his peak are Croatia's two biggest assets. Avoiding Brazil, France and England in the early knockout rounds is essential.
Prediction
Croatia exit in the round of 16 or quarter-finals. Gvardiol is named in the tournament's Best XI. A brave exit on penalties to a favoured nation.